In a high-stakes meeting at the White House, U.S. President Donald Trump hinted at possible changes—or even replacements—to the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). During talks with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, Trump expressed uncertainty about whether the current trade framework serves America’s best interests.
The Context Behind the Meeting
The meeting comes as the USMCA approaches a major review next year. Originally enacted during Trump’s first term, the agreement allows most Canadian and Mexican goods to enter the U.S. without tariffs. However, Trump has frequently signaled his desire to reshape or renegotiate the deal to give America what he calls “a better position.”
Trump’s Remarks
“We could renegotiate it, and that would be good, or we can just do different deals,” Trump said. “We might make deals that are better for the individual countries.”
His remarks reflected a noncommittal stance, suggesting that the U.S. could either revamp or replace the trade pact depending on what yields the best results for the U.S. economy.
Canada’s Concerns
Carney’s visit aimed to ease tensions and seek relief from U.S. tariffs on key sectors, such as steel and aluminum. The USMCA is vital for Canada’s economy — more than 75% of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
“There are areas where we compete, but we’re stronger together,” Carney said, emphasizing cooperation over conflict.
Rising Trade Tensions
Despite the friendly tone, relations between the two allies remain tense. Trump’s repeated suggestions about making Canada the “51st state” and his tariff policies have led many Canadians to feel betrayed.
Former Canadian ambassador Frank McKenna described this as the “lowest point in relations” between the two nations in decades.
“There is an outright rebellion,” McKenna said. “Businesses are moving trips away and citizens are rethinking vacation plans.”
Economic Importance of USMCA
The U.S. and Canada share one of the world’s largest trade relationships. Each day, about $2.5 billion (CAD 3.6 billion) in goods and services cross the border. Canada is the top export destination for 36 U.S. states, highlighting how deeply the two economies are connected.
- 60% of U.S. crude oil imports come from Canada
- 85% of U.S. electricity imports originate from Canada
- Canada remains the largest supplier of steel, aluminum, and uranium to the U.S.
Tariffs and Trade Barriers
Trump’s Section 232 tariffs—especially the 50% duties on steel and aluminum—have hurt Canadian manufacturers. While Carney called for their removal, the U.S. president did not commit to any immediate changes.
Canadian trade minister Dominic LeBlanc described the talks as “positive” and said both sides would continue discussions on these sensitive issues.
Mutual Dependence
Despite differences, both countries recognize their deep mutual reliance. Canada provides 34 critical minerals that the Pentagon considers vital for national security. In return, the U.S. is a key investor and defense partner.
Vice President JD Vance also hosted Carney for dinner following the White House meeting — a sign of ongoing diplomatic engagement.
What’s Next for North American Trade?
With the USMCA under review, uncertainty remains high. Experts warn that if Trump gives the six-month termination notice allowed under the agreement, it could shock markets across North America.
“If the United States were to threaten us with termination, it would send a deep chill across the continent,” said McKenna.
Conclusion
The meeting between President Trump and Prime Minister Carney highlights the fragile balance in North American trade relations. While both leaders expressed a desire for cooperation, the path forward for the USMCA remains uncertain. The world will be watching closely as the two nations decide whether to renew, renegotiate, or replace the deal that defines their economic partnership.