Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first federal budget is already making waves across Canada. According to fresh polling, Canadians across political lines and provincial borders are largely supportive of several major items in the new fiscal plan. However, experts warn that this support could fade quickly if the government fails to deliver visible progress on infrastructure, homebuilding, and nation-building promises. Here’s a full breakdown of the latest numbers and what they mean for Canada’s political and economic landscape.
1. Overview of the Polling Results
New Leger polling reveals that Canadians strongly back several flagship proposals in the Carney government’s first budget. Although overall budget approval remains low, support for individual measures is notably high.
2. Key Budget Items Winning High Public Support
The budget introduced on Nov. 4 includes a projected deficit of $78.3 billion and outlines major investments intended to diversify the economy beyond reliance on the United States. Highlights include:
- 10-year, $51-billion local infrastructure fund – 76% support
- Reduced immigration targets – 74% support
- Military modernization spending – 60% support
- Shrinking the federal public service – 55% support
- CBC/Radio-Canada $150 million funding boost – 37% support
The mix of nation-building and fiscal restraint appears to appeal to a fairly broad audience.
3. Support for Infrastructure Funding Across Canada
Respondents across most provinces voiced strong approval for the government’s long-term plan to invest heavily in local infrastructure. The support cuts across political parties and demographic groups, showing rare national alignment.
4. Immigration Target Reductions: A Popular Move
The decision to lower immigration targets — one of the most debated budget items — received overwhelming support:
- Ontario: 77%
- Atlantic Canada: 80%
- Other regions: Strong majority
Immigration remains a high-profile political issue, and the polling shows Canadians are receptive to a temporary reduction.
5. Military Modernization Gains Momentum
With rising global tensions, 60% of Canadians back the plan to invest billions in Canada’s military modernization. This includes equipment upgrades and modernization programs that have been delayed for years.
6. Public Service Reductions and CBC Funding
Support for public service reduction reached 55%, while the CBC funding bump saw only limited approval. Still, these numbers reflect broader fiscal concerns across the population.
7. Budget Approval vs. Individual Policy Approval
Despite strong backing for individual policies, only 30% of Canadians said they support the budget overall. Poll analysts believe this is due to the lack of short-term affordability measures at a time when households remain stretched.
8. Regional Differences: Ontario, Atlantic Canada & Alberta
Polling shows Alberta — often critical of Liberal governments — is surprisingly close to national averages in support for the infrastructure and immigration plans. This is a sharp contrast to the Trudeau-era budgets, which were poorly received in the province.
9. Comparison With Trudeau-Era Budget Receptions
Leger’s 2024 polling showed that nearly two-thirds of Albertans believed the country was heading in the wrong direction under the former government. The shift toward major projects and economic growth has rebuilt some goodwill, though analysts say it might be fragile.
10. The Political Test Ahead in Parliament
The budget faces a critical vote in the House of Commons next week. With the Liberals operating as a minority government, they must rely on cooperation from other parties. So far, they have survived two amendment votes.
11. Cross-Party Support for Core Budget Items
Approval crosses party lines:
- Conservative voters: 85% support for reducing immigration
- NDP voters: 90% support local infrastructure spending
- Liberal voters: Broad support across nearly all budget items
This cross-party alignment strengthens the government’s position — at least for now.
12. Growing Pressure for Visible Progress on Projects
Pollster Andrew Enns warns that Canadians expect tangible progress soon. With two new agencies — the Major Projects Office and Build Canada Homes — Carney must demonstrate action on nation-building and housing within the next year.
Carney’s recent comments at the Canadian Club Toronto, where he expressed confidence that a new Alberta pipeline project is “going to happen,” highlight a more assertive government stance on energy and infrastructure.