Prime Minister Mark Carney has given his strongest indication yet that a new oil pipeline from Alberta could be on the horizon, telling a Bay Street audience Friday that “it’s going to happen.”
Speaking at a Canadian Club Toronto event, Carney told the crowd that his government is on top of “the pipeline stuff,” before adding jokingly, “Well, something’s going to happen, let’s put it that way.”
The comments mark a notable shift in tone from Ottawa, where the Liberal government has long avoided endorsing new oil pipeline projects amid environmental and political controversies.
1. Carney’s Remarks on the Pipeline
At Friday’s Canadian Club event, Carney — who is also promoting his government’s first federal budget — told the business crowd not to worry about the prospects for energy infrastructure.
“Danielle’s on line one,” Carney quipped, referring to Alberta Premier Danielle Smith. “Don’t worry, it’s going to happen.”
He later softened the statement slightly, acknowledging that negotiations are ongoing, but his tone reflected growing federal openness to new export capacity.
2. Alberta’s Push for Energy Expansion
Speaking separately in Calgary, Premier Danielle Smith said she hopes to move forward on Alberta’s proposal for a bitumen pipeline to the B.C. coast and to advance the Pathways Alliance carbon capture and storage (CCS) project.
“I’m still working with the federal government to see if we can come up with a memorandum of understanding,” Smith said, emphasizing that the province wants to reach Asian markets while also tackling emissions through technology.
She added that removing “bad laws” — such as the federal Impact Assessment Act — would help restore investor confidence.
3. Ottawa’s Position on Energy and Regulation
Carney, however, dismissed the idea that existing environmental laws are preventing energy projects from moving ahead.
“That’s what they say, but they’re wrong,” Carney said. “We are getting projects coming in.”
He pointed to the new Major Projects Office as a vehicle for streamlining large-scale development, saying it is already reviewing multiple industrial proposals under the national interest framework.
4. B.C. Opposition and Federal Challenges
Any proposal for a new oil pipeline faces steep political challenges — not least from B.C. Premier David Eby, who has called the idea of another coastal pipeline “fictional.”
Federal Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson has also said such a project would require the support of affected First Nations and the B.C. government before it could move forward.
5. The “Grand Bargain” and Carbon Capture
Carney described what he called a “grand bargain” with Alberta — an understanding that future oil exports must be tied to low-carbon production.
“The future of oil export is going to be low carbon,” Carney said. “Twinning additional oilsands development with carbon capture makes sense. It also creates a multi, multi-billion dollar industry for Canada.”
6. Pathways Alliance and the Low-Carbon Future
The Pathways Alliance, a consortium of major oilsands producers, is working to develop one of the world’s largest carbon capture and storage networks in northern Alberta.
Both the federal and provincial governments see it as a cornerstone project for achieving net-zero targets while maintaining Canada’s global energy role.
7. Role of the Major Projects Office
Carney also highlighted the work of the Major Projects Office (MPO) — established earlier this year to coordinate permitting and approvals for nation-building infrastructure.
The MPO is currently reviewing multiple energy and critical mineral projects and aims to cut approval times in half through unified federal oversight.
8. LNG Exports and Diversification Goals
Beyond oil, Carney touted liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a key opportunity for Canadian energy diversification.
He noted that Asian countries are “hungry for LNG” and that Canadian exports can help displace coal use abroad, contributing to global emissions reduction goals.
9. Political Context and Industry Reactions
Carney’s comments come as his government faces political pressure from both industry groups and provincial leaders to accelerate investment in infrastructure and export capacity.
The statement “it’s going to happen” is likely to energize the oilpatch but also rekindle environmental opposition to new fossil fuel expansion.
10. The Road Ahead
While Carney stopped short of announcing a specific project, his remarks signal a significant political opening for future energy infrastructure.
With the Major Projects Office and federal budget focused on large-scale industrial growth, Ottawa appears poised to balance decarbonization with energy development — a delicate act at the heart of Canada’s economic strategy.