Canada’s housing market faced another setback in October, with new data showing a notable drop in construction activity. As rising costs, labour shortages, and economic pressure continue to shape the real estate sector, understanding these trends has never been more important for both buyers and industry professionals. This article breaks down the latest CMHC numbers and what they mean for the country’s housing future.
1. Overview of Canada’s Housing Starts
Housing starts are a key indicator of construction activity and future housing supply. CMHC tracks these numbers to help predict market stability, economic growth, and affordability trends.
2. What CMHC Reported for October
According to the latest update, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of housing starts fell to 232,765 units, down sharply from 279,174 units in September — a 17% decline.
3. Provinces With the Biggest Declines
CMHC notes that Ontario and British Columbia led the downturn, with both provinces seeing fewer multi-unit and single-family starts than hoped.
4. Markets That Helped Balance National Totals
Even with the decline, stronger performance in
- Montréal
- Calgary
- Edmonton
helped keep year-to-date numbers slightly above last year’s pace.
5. Year-to-Date Housing Starts Performance
In centres with 10,000+ population, actual housing starts totaled 197,207 from January to October — up from 188,660 during the same period in 2024.
Here is a quick comparison:
| Metric | 2024 YTD | 2025 YTD |
|---|---|---|
| Population 10,000+ Housing Starts | 188,660 | 197,207 |
| October Actual Starts | 19,763 | 19,174 |
6. Six-Month Moving Average Explained
The six-month moving average dipped to 268,907 in October, down from 277,081. This smoothed-out metric shows a gradual slowdown rather than a sudden one.
7. Why Construction Activity Is Slowing
Several factors are increasing pressure on builders:
- Higher financing and borrowing costs
- Labour shortages across skilled trades
- Rising material prices
- Slower pre-construction sales
These issues create delays and make it harder for developers to start new projects.
8. Impact on the Real Estate Market
Lower housing starts usually mean tighter supply, which can worsen affordability. Some experts expect this gap to grow unless construction picks up again.
9. What This Means for Buyers & Investors
Buyers may face fewer options and higher prices, while investors might see rental markets tighten further — potentially boosting rental demand but increasing initial investment challenges.
10. Government and Industry Response
Federal and provincial governments continue to introduce policies aimed at acceleration housing supply, although experts argue progress feels slower than needed.
11. Final Thoughts
While Canada’s housing starts have dipped, the overall year-to-date numbers still show resilience. Whether this slowdown continues will depend on market conditions and how quickly governments and industries respond. There was a small mistake in some reports, but overall the trend is clear: construction momentum is easing.